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Kasich’s unfavs double, Strickland leads in Q poll

Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

Not only does the new Quinnipiac poll show Gov. Ted Strickland maintaining his lead over John Kasich, the most significant movement is that the Wall Street Congressman’s unfavorable ratings have doubled since April. PPP is also out with a poll today showing that among voters who know Kasich, more have an unfavorable view of him – a reversal from their last poll. 

 Kasich has been under assault from Building A Stronger Ohio, a DGA-led independent expenditure that has been on the air statewide since May. You can see BSO’s ads here, here and here.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1470

June 29, 2010 – Strickland Holds Off Kasich In Tight Ohio Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Want Arizona-Type Immigration Law

Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland holds a slight 43 – 38 percent lead over Republican challenger John Kasich, statistically unchanged from 44 – 38 percent in April, and 43 – 38 percent in March, at least partly because Kasich remains unknown to half of Ohio voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Ohio voters say 45 – 35 percent they would like Ohio to pass an immigration law similar to the law in Arizona, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

In the Governor’s race, Strickland leads among Democrats 81 – 4 percent and among independents 40 – 37 percent, while Kasich leads among Republicans 81 – 6 percent.

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DMR: Vander Plaats poses peril for Branstad

Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

After Terry Branstad called his once (and future?) opponent Bob Vander Plaats “crazy” over the weekend, the Des Moines Register’s Kathy Obradovich explains why Vander Plaats continues to pose a real threat. She writes:

 “For Branstad and his campaign, Vander Plaats is like a two-headed snake in the garden. They can’t get rid of it and they can’t ignore it. They can try to distract one end – but the other can still coil around and bite. Best to give it a wide berth.”

 Obradovich: Vander Plaats poses peril for Branstad

So we’re back to where we were before the Republican state convention – waiting for Bob Vander Plaats to speak up.

Vander Plaats lost the GOP primary to Terry Branstad on June 8, and on Saturday he lost a nomination fight for lieutenant governor to Branstad’s choice, state Sen. Kim Reynolds. Since he hasn’t ruled it out, we can surmise that he’s still contemplating what would almost certainly be yet another losing battle: an independent run for governor.

A losing battle, that is, if his goal is to get elected. Getting 41 percent of the vote in the primary may have been enough to justify an effort to unify the party by getting on the Branstad ticket. Vander Plaats wants more than moral victories. But 44 percent of the delegate vote for his lieutenant governor nomination is not necessarily a mandate for an independent run.

State Rep. Rod Roberts told me after the vote there may have been some delegates willing to support Vander Plaats for lieutenant governor as one last show of support for him or for his message. But, he said, now it’s time to turn to the general election and “get behind the team.”

Roberts, who was also nominated for lieutenant governor, used his speech to take his name out of contention and endorse the Branstad-Reynolds ticket. I heard a number of delegates saying that was a “classy” move.

Congressman Steve King said he was worried that an independent run by Vander Plaats would be a prescription for victory for Democratic incumbent Chet Culver.

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What do Rick Perry and the Green Party have in common?

Friday, June 25th, 2010

A lot, as it turns out. Last night, a judge blocked the Texas Green Party from the appearing on the ballot, ruling “that illegal corporate money was used in a Republican attempt to put them there to benefit Gov. Rick Perry.”

 The ruling came after testimony from a University of Texas student revealed Perry’s close confidante and former chief of staff paid him $2, 000 a month to move the effort forward.

Looks like Rick Perry is afraid of a fair fight against Bill White.

Perry has been on defense for weeks on his failure to close the $18 billion budget gap and taxpayer-funded luxury lifestyle. Now the career politician will have to answer questions about what he knew and when he knew it.

 Judge blocks Green Party candidates from Texas ballot

By WAYNE SLATER / The Dallas Morning News

A state judge blocked Green Party candidates from Texas’ general election ballot Thursday, ruling that illegal corporate money was used in a Republican attempt to put them there to benefit Gov. Rick Perry.

District Judge John Dietz said he expected his injunction would be stayed by a higher court.

He issued the injunction after a day of testimony in Austin that implicated a former top Perry aide in efforts to field Green Party candidates in November.

Democrats say Perry would be helped if the Green Party candidate for governor siphons votes from Democrat Bill White. The Perry campaign denied any involvement in the effort.

The Democratic Party had filed the suit to block the Green Party candidates and to find out who bankrolled the petition drive scheme, which was first reported by The Dallas Morning News.

In testimony Thursday, University of Texas student Garrett Mize said he was approached in late 2009 by former Perry chief of staff Mike Toomey about a possible petition drive putting the Green Party on the ballot.

Mize said that Toomey, now an Austin lobbyist, paid him $2,000 a month but that he quit in April when it became clear that money for the effort would not be coming from environmentally sensitive wind-energy advocates as promised.

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PPP: Texas Governor: Tied

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

As Rick Perry continues to take heat for his extravagant taxpayer-funded rental mansion, his part-time working habits and his total failure to close an $18 billion budget deficit, new polling shows the Texas governor’s race as a dead heat.  

 Texas Governor: Tied

One of the biggest questions about the 2010 election cycle, which we still don’t really know the answer to, is whether it will be solely an anti-Democratic year or more broadly an anti-incumbent year. Our newest Texas poll would seem to suggest voter fatigue toward long serving politicians in both parties- Republican Governor Rick Perry is now tied at 43 with Democratic challenger Bill White.

Texas would seem an unlikely candidate to provide Democrats their biggest win of the election cycle but the Governor’s race there is a reminder that candidates matter. Perry is an unusually weak incumbent, while White is an unusually strong challenger. Only 36% of voters in the state like the job Perry is doing while 49% disapprove. Among independents the numbers are particularly bad- just 27% give Perry good marks to 55% who think he’s doing a poor job. White meanwhile is better known and better liked than most challengers running across the country this year. 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one and he posts positive numbers with independents at a 35/24 spread.

In almost every race in the country right now Republican voters are more unified around their candidates than Democrats are and independents are leaning toward the GOP. Texas is running against the national grain on both of those counts- White is winning 15% of Republicans while Perry gets just 10% of Democrats and White also has a 42-36 advantage with independent voters.

Things look promising for White but Texas is still a conservative state where Barack Obama is exceedingly unpopular and that could end up proving to be too much for him to overcome. It may end up that White is the right candidate just running in the wrong cycle. But for now this looks like a surprisingly strong opportunity for Democrats and a race that could certainly end up as one of the most closely watched in the country.

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The only thing sadder…

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

The only thing sadder than a former 20-year congressman who has lost two statewide races is a former 20-year congressman who has lost two statewide races and now has to pander to the Tea Party.   

Dick Armey Backs Bill McCollum

Kevin Derby’s blog

This morning, former U.S. House Majority Leader Dick Armey, now chairman of FreedomWorks, announced he was backing Attorney General Bill McCollum’s bid to become the next governor of Florida.

With Rick Scott posing a serious challenge to the attorney general for the Republican nomination, Armey went out of his way to reinforce McCollum’s conservative credentials.

“In the Florida race for governor, no one has done more to further the cause of conservatism than Bill McCollum,” said Armey.  “I was proud to have Bill as part of my leadership team when we wrote the Contract with America, and I look forward to him serving as Florida’s next governor.”

“Bill McCollum was ‘tea party’ long before there were tea parties opposing President Obama’s big government agenda and long before he was leading our efforts to repeal the new health-care law’s intrusive individual mandate,” continued Armey. “Our nation needs strong conservative governors, and as governor, Bill McCollum will provide the conservative leadership we need to turn our nation around.”

“Congressman Armey has a tremendous record of principled conservative leadership as the former Republican House majority leader,” said McCollum. “I am grateful to Congressman Armey for embracing my vision to create more jobs for more Floridians without expanding government.”

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Haley voted to cut funding for site of election night party

Monday, June 21st, 2010

Haley voted to cut funding for site of election night party

From CNN Political Producer Peter Hamby:

 South Carolina gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley’s election night party on Tuesday won’t be at the members-only club where she celebrated her big Republican primary win on June 8.

Instead, she and her supporters will gather at the South Carolina State Museum in downtown Columbia.

But Democrats are pointing out that Haley – a state representative and foe of government spending – actually voted to chop the museum’s budget just last week.

On June 16, during a special session to consider a slate of Gov. Mark Sanford’s budget vetoes, Haley voted to sustain the governor’s veto of $1.64 million in operating expenses for the museum.

The state museum had campaigned against the budget cut, enlisting their supporters and patrons to call state legislators and urge them to override the veto.

Sanford’s veto eventually failed and the museum money remained in the budget. Haley was one of 27 House members who voted for the budget cut.

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Vander Plaats as spoiler?

Monday, June 21st, 2010

Bob Vander Plaats’ surprisingly strong candidacy forced Terry Branstad to remake himself as the “real conservative” and seek Sarah Palin’s blessing in their primary. Branstad thought he could pivot into a general election strategy after the June 8 election, but are the 40 percent of Iowa Republicans who voted for Vander Plaats up for grabs again?

 Vander Plaats candidacy could doom GOP hopes of beating Culver

By Jason Hancock 6/18/10 7:44 AM

While it remains unclear just how serious Bob Vander Plaats is considering an independent run for governor, one thing almost everyone agrees on is that his candidacy would almost assuredly guarantee another term for Democratic incumbent Gov. Chet Culver.

 “The numbers right now show a substantial lead for registered Democrats over registered Republicans,” former GOP U.S. Senate candidate Bill Salier said during a recent appearance on WHO-AM’s Deace in the Afternoon. “If you take another, let’s say 7 percent of the vote away from [Terry] Branstad… I think it would spell the doom of a Branstad candidacy. I don’t think he can overcome the 108,000 difference in registered voters and a third-party candidacy.  I think that would do him in.”

News broke Thursday that a meeting had occurred between Vander Plaats and GOP gubernatorial nominee Terry Branstad. At that meeting, Vander Plaats, who finished second in the GOP gubernatorial primary, apparently asked for a spot on the ticket, an idea that was rejected. That rejection opened the door for a potential third-party run for governor this fall.

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Ehrlich loses his cool

Monday, June 21st, 2010

Bob Ehrlich lost his cool on his radio show this weekend, as an O’Malley campaign ad hammered him on his lobbying ties to Big Oil during the show. Ehrlich, the only incumbent to lose office in 2006, lost his temper after “Drill, Baby, Drill” aired. Coverage below:

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/zontv/2010/06/ehrlich_omalley_wbal_kendel_bo.html

Attack ad, callers upset Ehrlichs’ WBAL show

An O’Malley campaign attack ad and a series of negative callers did an effective job of upsetting the usual tone and rhythm of “The Kendel and Bob Ehrlich Show” Saturday on WBAL radio.

Maryland Democrats failed in their efforts to get WBAL and election officials to take Ehrlich off the weekly airwaves once he started running in earnest for governor. But by buying airtime for attack ads like the “Big Oil Bob” radio spot that aired Saturday during the show, they have found a highly effective way to influence what is discussed on the program.

And while I have no evidence that the negative callers Saturday were in any way part of an organized partisan effort, they certainly were effective in getting under Ehrlich’s skin and seriously disrupting the usual pro-Ehrlich, propagandist flow of the program. In fact, a clearly agitated Ehrlich ordered the show’s producer at one point Saturday to cut one of the callers off altogether — a no-no in the world of responsible talk radio.

Ehlich suggested on-air that he ordered the caller cut off because of “inappropriate” language, but the only language that approached that realm came when the caller suggested that since he was a “voter,” the candidate should be “kissing his butt” rather than arguing with him — presumably to get his vote.

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That didn’t take long

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

After Meg Whitman spent the closing weeks of her primary convincing the right wing that she was hard line enough to be their nominee, she has changed her tune. And her ad traffic. No more Mitt Romney and Pete Wilson vouching for her conservative credentials.

Whitman, whose primary civil war forced her to alienate much of the Latino community, is now up with Spanish-language ads, which Ben Smith calls “a dramatic tack.”

More below:

Whitman, in Spanish, touts opposition to Arizona law

Meg Whitman, pivoting away from a primary that drove her much father to the right than she would have liked, will remind Hispanic Californians that she opposed Arizona’s controversial immigration law in an ad slated to run on the Spanish-language broadcast of today’s Mexico-France World Cup game.

“She respects our community,” says the ad’s narrator, according to a Spanish text provided to La Opinion’s Pilar Marrero. “She’s the Republican who opposed the Arizona law and opposed Proposition 187,” say the ad, referring to the 1994 initiative — later ruled unconstitutional — to bar illegal immigrants from receiving public health care and education.

The ad marks a dramatic tack a way from a primary in which Whitman was at times visibly uncomfortable with her campaign’s hard line, denying at one point — mistakenly — that her campaign was airing ads with images of a boarder fence.

Whitman is trying to undo damage done to the Republican Party among Hispanics that began in earnest with the fierce opposition to a broad immigration overhaul — and the naturalization of many illegal immigrants — that began in the middle of the last decade.

“It won’t be easy,” writes Marrero, a leading commentator on Hispanic politics at the nation’s largest Spanish-language daily, adding that many of the positions Whitman continues to hold — including her opposition to “comprehensive immigration reform and to subsidies for illegal immigrant college students “aren’t accepted in the Hispanic community.”

Her campaign reportedly hopes to increase the percentage of the Hispanic vote falling on the Republican line to 35%.

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Maybe this is why Meg avoids press conferences….

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

The NYT reveals this morning that Meg Whitman reportedly shoved an eBay employee just before a press interview in 2007. Even $91 million can’t make that look reasonable.

Meg Whitman likes to tout her record in business as her qualification to be California’s next governor. But the more we learn about Whitman’s business career – whether it’s that she was nicknamed Evil Meg or that she used her position to get insider stock deals with Goldman Sachs – the more troubling her record looks.

Settlement Was Paid in Whitman Shoving Incident

SAN FRANCISCO — During her 10 years as chief executive of eBay, Meg Whitman, the Republican candidate for governor of California, was known as a demanding leader who did not hesitate to express displeasure with employees who failed to live up to her standards.

But on one occasion, she was accused of going too far — and paid for it.

In June 2007, an eBay employee claimed that Ms. Whitman became angry and forcefully pushed her in an executive conference room at eBay’s headquarters, according to multiple former eBay employees with knowledge of the incident. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because the matter was delicate and was deemed to be strictly confidential.

The employee, Young Mi Kim, was preparing Ms. Whitman for a news media interview that day. Ms. Kim, who was not injured in the incident, hired a lawyer and threatened a lawsuit, but the dispute was resolved under the supervision of a private mediator.

Two of the former employees said the company paid a six-figure financial settlement to Ms. Kim, which one of them characterized as “around $200,000.”

An agreement to keep the matter confidential was also part of the settlement, and the authorities were not involved.

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